Fairleigh Dickinson

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	254.0
Current RPI:	254
Expected SOS:	260
Current SOS:	260
Current Record:	11-18
Expected Record:	11-18
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-10
Current OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC Record:	1-8
Expected OOC RPI:	322
Expected OOC SOS:	167

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-18	254.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Fairleigh Dickinson.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	90-68	L	0%
11-12	Penn St. (77.0)	B10	A	81-57	L	0%
11-22	Holy Cross (265.0)	Pat	H	87-76	W	100%
11-26	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	76-83	L	0%
11-29	Saint Peter's (251.0)	MAAC	A	77-53	L	0%
12-2	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	A	82-75	L	0%
12-9	Rutgers (203.0)	B10	A	92-54	L	0%
12-16	NJIT (269.0)	ASun	A	71-68	L	0%
12-21	Maryland (74.0)	B10	A	75-50	L	0%
12-29	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	71-82	W	100%
12-31	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	66-65	L	0%
1-4	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	81-77	W	100%
1-6	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	73-65	L	0%
1-11	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	85-90	L	0%
1-13	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	75-81	L	0%
1-18	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	A	66-65	L	0%
1-20	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	73-72	W	100%
1-25	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	H	70-76	L	0%
1-27	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	78-89	W	100%
2-1	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	74-60	L	0%
2-3	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	A	67-73	W	100%
2-8	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	77-67	W	100%
2-11	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	76-69	W	100%
2-15	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	79-80	W	100%
2-17	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	A	87-74	L	0%
2-22	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	H	82-90	L	0%
2-24	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	87-83	W	100%
2-28	St. Francis PA (178.0)	NEC	A	75-84	W	100%
3-3	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	78-77	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Fairleigh Dickinson's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Fairleigh Dickinson's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Fairleigh Dickinson.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	26.55	26.55	41.73	41.73	-4.39	-4.39
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	6.32	6.32	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	6.12	6.12	56.00	56.00	0.73	0.73
Wagner	NEC	4.70	4.70	71.43	71.43	2.02	2.02
Robert Morris	NEC	4.59	4.59	48.39	48.39	-0.15	-0.15
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.56	4.56	33.33	33.33	-1.52	-1.52
Central Connecticut	NEC	4.55	4.55	43.33	43.33	-0.61	-0.61
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.52	4.52	28.57	28.57	-1.94	-1.94
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.51	4.51	57.14	57.14	0.64	0.64
Bryant	NEC	4.49	4.49	10.34	10.34	-3.56	-3.56
Saint Peter's	MAAC	2.02	2.02	41.94	41.94	-0.33	-0.33
Rutgers	B10	1.94	1.94	40.62	40.62	-0.36	-0.36
NJIT	ASun	1.94	1.94	40.74	40.74	-0.36	-0.36
Seton Hall	BE	1.87	1.87	64.52	64.52	0.54	0.54
Iona	MAAC	1.86	1.86	59.38	59.38	0.35	0.35
Holy Cross	Pat	1.81	1.81	40.00	40.00	-0.36	-0.36
Penn St.	B10	1.81	1.81	60.61	60.61	0.38	0.38
Maryland	B10	1.80	1.80	56.67	56.67	0.24	0.24
Princeton	Ivy	1.72	1.72	40.74	40.74	-0.32	-0.32
Hartford	AE	0.41	0.41	58.06	58.06	0.07	0.07
Brown	Ivy	0.34	0.34	38.46	38.46	-0.08	-0.08
UMass Lowell	AE	0.28	0.28	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
Rider	MAAC	0.27	0.27	70.97	70.97	0.11	0.11
American	Pat	0.26	0.26	20.00	20.00	-0.16	-0.16
Northwestern	B10	0.24	0.24	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.24	0.24	25.00	25.00	-0.12	-0.12
Fairfield	MAAC	0.24	0.24	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Lehigh	Pat	0.24	0.24	51.72	51.72	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.22	0.22	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.21	0.21	75.00	75.00	0.10	0.10
Lafayette	Pat	0.20	0.20	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Navy	Pat	0.20	0.20	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Niagara	MAAC	0.20	0.20	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
St. John's	BE	0.19	0.19	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.19	0.19	35.48	35.48	-0.06	-0.06
Purdue	B10	0.18	0.18	82.35	82.35	0.12	0.12
Louisville	ACC	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.17	0.17	23.08	23.08	-0.09	-0.09
Fordham	A10	0.16	0.16	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	15.62	15.62	-0.11	-0.11
Binghamton	AE	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Butler	BE	0.14	0.14	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Michigan St.	B10	0.13	0.13	87.88	87.88	0.10	0.10
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Indiana	B10	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.12	0.12	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Army	Pat	0.12	0.12	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	Pat	0.11	0.11	26.67	26.67	-0.05	-0.05
Duquesne	A10	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.11	0.11	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Marquette	BE	0.11	0.11	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Providence	BE	0.11	0.11	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Albany	AE	0.11	0.11	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Wisconsin	B10	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Longwood	BSth	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.09	0.09	84.85	84.85	0.06	0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.09	0.09	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Harvard	Ivy	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.09	0.09	26.92	26.92	-0.04	-0.04
Bucknell	Pat	0.08	0.08	73.53	73.53	0.04	0.04
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.08	0.08	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.08	0.08	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
George Washington	A10	0.06	0.06	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
La Salle	A10	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Villanova	BE	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
BYU	WCC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.02	0.02
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico	MWC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01